Black and white swans
I have been thinking a lot about our lives and the world in general evolves in a very random state, and what a big factor probability or luck plays. In most recent years people have tried to tame the beast, probability that is, explain it, measure it and control it. Most of the work that has been done involves the Gaussian normal distribution curve that certainly explains a lot of physical features of the world. Through reading, trading and thinking I am coming to the conclusion that social sciences do not fit well in the bell curve world. It seems we are getting a lot of rare events quite frequently. In the options trading world, that would mean that all the standard diviation calculations are all wrong, and it is good to be buying options and waiting for an extraordinary event. So, what does that probability talk have to do with lamps? Isn’t this a site for lamps, light fixtures and such other things? Yes, that is correct, but the poplularity of the site and teh online business of Apolia depends on good luck, that is a positive black swan that will help us get popular, visited and purchased. Hope this strikes a few minds to think outside of the box. Post comments if you would like, let’s have a discussion on the topic. Good luck!